Bitcoin is going higher and so are crpyto stocks in a speculative blow-off that will lead to a crash when it ends.
Stock Market Barometer
I gave this update on Bitcoin, gold, and the financial markets with Jim Goddard on This Week In Money.
Watch this stock market mastermind session with David Skarica.
As central bank policies are increasingly fingered by the mainstream as the source of soaring wealth-income inequality, policies supporting credit/asset bubbles will either be limited or cut off, and at that point all the credit/asset bubbles will pop.
Many things that are scarce and thus valuable cannot be bought on the global marketplace.
In response to the delusion that low interest rates “justify” virtually any level of market valuation, regardless of the growth rate of the underlying cash flows, the speculation of recent years has created a situation where there is effectively no way out for investors in aggregate.
In effect, stocks are viewed as good investments because they have been going up, and the evidence that stock prices will go up is that stock prices have gone up.
That's the problem with fragility: everything looks fine on the surface until a crisis applies pressure. Then the whole rickety contraption collapses in a heap.
"The problem is that if interest rates are lower because likely future nominal growth in deliverable cash flows is also lower, then no valuation premium is justified at all."
"Ominously for the stock markets, the Federal Reserve is warning that quantitative tightening is coming later this year..."
Last week, the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio reached the highest level in history, outside of the single week of March 24, 2000 that represented the peak of the tech bubble.
The rate of advance on many stocks is getting crazy.
Jim Rogers sees a big stock market drop coming.
A look at blowoff rallies and market crashes.
Grant Williams on Trump and the financial markets.
Mike Saul looks the market setup this week.
Is the stock market rally over?
Is the DOW breakout the start of a new bull market or just a continuation rally?
It is vital that you understand this is a 2-4 month forecast only and as the market evolves my outlook will change as I follow price action as closely as possible.
Here is a video I did with David Skarica about what is happening with the stock market with a big picture view of things.
"While U.S. stocks keep falling, an index that’s supposed to track investor angst is behaving as if it’s just another day in the market. What’s going on?"
Two days ago the Investors Intelligence guys released their investor sentiment readings and they are at a danger level.
Well it looks like some crazy swings in the stock market are beginning again.
I've circled two of the recent tops in the DOW this year. They started with a hard break like we saw yesterday. Then there was a weak bounce and another drop that took it down to it's 200-day moving averages.
This week according to the AAII poll the number of investors bullish on the stock market has gone back above 30%, after dropping below 25% a few weeks ago.