IVN
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Anyone buying at these levels? I'm holding 1000 shares in core from long ago picked up at 12 and should have bought more in mid Sept/Oct when the initial beat down occurred. Now it looks like more weakness is in the cards. I see support in the 12-12.50 range and may hold out for more downside now that it has punched below 17. Seems there is resistance at 20 and 22. Gerald, I know you have been a fan of IVN in the past. Still sniffing this one out? Good for a trade here and unload at 20+? Thanks for any comments.
John, I still am looking at IVN for a future trade. It is not a trade I feel compelled to take, since I (like you) have a bunch of IVN in my core position. I can only buy for a trade in the 15-15.50 area, and if it goes down there, whether or not I buy it will depend on how much trading capital I have spent elsewhere.
Trading is different from holding. Long term, IVN is still in the consolidation phase of a bull trend that began 7 years ago. In my view, a core position in the mining/resources sector should be held until fundamentals change, or until there has been some kind of blow-off top. Of course, you will see the latter in the rear-view mirror via technical analysis. It hasn't happened yet. When such a candidate for a top reveals itself technically, prices will be below the highs, by definition. Still, you should be in good overall profits if you have been buying quality on weakness. In the late 1970's, many who bought silver at 5, 6, 7, 8, and even 10, had plenty of time to book HUGE gains between, say, 20 and 30 even after having missed the top at 50. Given global monetary authorities' determination to rig a Keynesian recovery (i.e., one that is grounded in Keynesian-biased models), and given recent disclosures that short rates will remain negative (below inflation, however you choose to measure inflation...) for a long time, blow-off moves in gold and the resource mining sectors seem to me to be far off into the future. I am holding my core, with the above thoughts in mind, and am trading from the long side by buying negative and selling positive.
IVN is certainly a high enough quality stock to simply hold in one's core position and wait out the golden bull. Selling part of a core position accumulated at lower prices should be done rarely, and only when fundamentals (business fundamentals, in the case of mining/resource stocks) change. Selling while the uptrend is still intact, just on the hope that you might be able to re-buy at lower levels, doesn't make sense, to me. These are TRADING decisions. And, when you trade, you wait for what you see as the best trading situations. If they do not occur, you simply don't trade. As difficult as it sounds and may in fact be, the best thing a trader can do is pay attention to overall sentiment and basic technical situations, and wait for such confluences to occur.
Good luck.
Thanks Gerald! I don't intend to mess with the core. Still feel additional weakness is in the cards. I took profits last week during the run up and sitting on about 60% in right now. Not looking to do anything here. Still holding KGC, AEM, SA, SIL, and SVM along with small trading position in IVN at a much higher level. Have bids in on AUY at 15 and and GG at 45. If IVN drops into the mid 15's may give it an add. Good luck to you and tipping a nip of Speyburn you way.
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if you bfought it at 12 why not take profit, and buy back lower price. if you sold half your cost is the remaing half would be 7 give or take. money flow is going down, gold mining stocks are dropping like a rock, buy back at 12 or lower over time
Dick M