The Small Fry Is All-In Stocks Now - Mike Swanson (04/30/2015)
Forget about what the stock market did Thursday when the DOW dumped or what people are saying it might do today.
I say forget about it, because if you think too hard about what happens in one day in the market and try to figure it out you can easily become tricked by the market. In stage one tops people get fooled by up days and in basing phases they easily get scared by down days when nothing really important is happening - YET.
Instead today I want to talk about an undeniable reality when it comes to the US stock market that you must know about.
The reality is that when everyone is thinking the same thing when it comes to a market you better watch out.
And when it comes to the stock market all data suggests that the small player is essentially all-in when it comes to stocks.
That's why Wednesday's Investors Intelligence report showed a jump in bulls to 57% and why there is record margin debt levels in the market.
It is also is why stock brokerage data suggests that the small fry is all-in when it comes to stocks as the video above makes clear.
Take a look at this video.
A broad look at the 6.5 million customer accounts at TD Ameritrade indicates that retail investors are "pretty fully invested" in stocks, the online brokerage's CEO said Thursday.
Fred Tomczyk cited several signs of this: margin loans at high levels, client cash at low levels and account holders at the firm logging in frequently. "It's usually a good indication that people are very engaged in the markets and watching their investments closely," he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
People are constantly logging into their brokerage accounts trying to daytrade or watch their balance gyrate.
When everyone is all-in stocks who is going to be left to buy at the higher prices that everyone is fantasizing about?
That's a question the small fry bubble-bull cannot ask himself.
In reality there are more ways to make money then just buying or selling the US stock market.
There are markets making a transition this year into new bull markets, but the masses completely ignore such opportunities, because they are all-in the US stock market and therefore put themselves into a position where they must be obsessed about it.
But the market is in a stage three topping phase.
On Thursday the DOW closed in the red for the year.
The stock market may in fact have actually topped out a few days ago for good.
I do not know and am not trying to guess the exact top, but am planning on shorting when I think the top is in.
And I also am buying and planning to buy many other things ready to go up this year.
This is a year of transition in the markets - and not a year where you sit there and think "well it's just going to go up forever these US stocks, because everyone I know is in and we all want it to go up so it will."
People said that in March of 2000 and ended up getting crushed.
This is why I have said over and over the past few weeks to take at least some money off of the table.
Having 10% in a cash reserve is very prudent now and a 10% gold position as insurance is too.
I gave an update on my views on gold and what we need to watch for to recognize the start of the next big bull market in this update a few days ago in case you have not seen it yet:
Now if you want to make real money in the coming years you must plan ahead.
My mini-course I titled the Bear Market Power Pack can help you do that.
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