I sent you an article [1] a few days ago telling you I thought we were entering a cyclical bull market. One of the things I wrote about was that last week the market spent over six weeks above its 200 and 150-day moving averages - something that I take as a confirmation of a bull market just as I took the market staying below it for six weeks at the end of 2007 as proof that a new bear market was on.
A lot of people are skeptical. It might be hard for you to trust such a thing. I know the past year we've seen all sorts of fake moves both to the upside and to the downside that make you feel that charting doesn't work anymore or the stock market is just illogical or rigged against you.
Well, one thing that makes me feel confident in saying that we are in a cyclical bull market is the fact that the majority of the sectors in the market now have positive chart formations - they appear to be in bottoming formations that they will break out of in the next six weeks.
I show this to you in this video with my stock trading software [2]:
Although the stock market peaked out in the Fall of 2007 and for me total proof we were in a bear market came at the end of that year using technical analysis [3], the real bear market began in the first half of 2007 before the stock market averages topped, because that is when most stocks began their bear markets.
The advance/decline line [4] topped out months before the stock market did and was in a clear downtrend by the end of the year. Over half of the sectors were in undeniable bear markets in the fourth quarter of 2007 - it was proof that we were entering a vicious bear market.
Well now the advance/decline line is very bullish and surged to new highs for the year last week and will probably do so again in the next few days while the vast majority of the sectors in the stock market are basing around their long-term moving averages with the 200-day bollinger bands coming together - they are getting ready to make a move within the next six weeks.
From March to June we saw a sharp rally in the markets, but that rally was fueled by the heavily shorted stocks and junk companies like the financials. Now leadership is shifting away from stocks like this and is becoming broad based throughout the stock market as evidenced by the rising advance/decline line.
That is is the sort of thing that happens at the beginning of a bull market and makes for a healthy environment for buying stocks. Right now the ones moving up the most are China stocks [5].
One must at times adjust ones investment strategy to changes in the overall market trend. Over the next year I expect the money to be made in the stock market will come from owning individual stocks.
I didn't get in at the March lows and wasn't long at the time either. I really have no interest in buying mutual funds or the market ETF's because they already have moved up over 30% and I don't see any great place to put a stop in them. That means for me the risk/reward just isn't there. But when it comes to individual stocks there are plenty of opportunities and there will be more going forward. For instance just look at top ten stock [BLANKED FOR POWER INVESTOR MEMBERS ONLY].
I updated my own stock watchlist. You can see it here [6].
I know some people have no interest in stocks and instead got into FOREX trading during the bear market. I know because I get emails from them all of the time about applying my trading techniques to FOREX.
I'm not a FOREX trader, but if you are interested in FOREX I can point you in a good direction. Check out 34+ year trading veteran Bill Poulous and his Nitty Gritty FOREX program. He now has a free video showing you his favorite trading trick. If you are into FOREX check it out by going here [7].
If you are new to the stock market then grab my stock market beginners [8] guide.
Links:
[1] http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/11113
[2] http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/7374
[3] http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/technical-analysis
[4] http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$NYAD
[5] http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/china-stocks
[6] http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/11166
[7] http://www.openforextraining.com/y/?i=886725&u=3&l=f9
[8] http://www.wallstreetwindow.com