First off airline stocks dipped yesterday and I got a flood of emails from people saying should they sell? Should they buy? Should they double down etc.

I cannot tell you individually what to do. I'm not a registered investment advisor and can only give advice very generally - that applies to me and everyone else so it can't be tailored to your own personal situation.

Also even if I could do that when people send me emails with questions like this they never give me enough information to answer them. The missing information is how much of your money is in cash and how much of it is invested?

When it comes to airlines I am holding my positions and when I sell will make a post informing you.

Personally I have only invested 30% of my account in the stock market and 70% of my money is in cash. This is because we are not in a bull market right now and that makes it very difficult to make money going long, because to try to do so means going against the market trend. This still isn't a time to buy and hold for the long-term and I plan on selling these positions early at some point and then putting my focus on going short - probably in 4-8 weeks - as we must assume we are still in a bear market and at the very least a big retracement of the rally will be in order.

In fact the way the market has been playing out I think the odds favor a new leg down now, because we did not get a full test of the November lows. If the market continues to rally - and I still expect it will - we'll see sentiment get extremely bullish again - more bullish than it did at any point last year - and the market will be placed in a dangerous situation sometime in the spring or summer.

Also when it comes to airlines you need to realize that they are not in a bull market. They are still in a stage one consolidation phase, but appear to be towards the end of that phase. They are the only sector in the entire stock market that is in this position - which means it is the only sector in the stock market with the ability to begin a new bull market over the next month.

There were some regional bank sectors that appeared to be lining up, but in the past few weeks they collapsed.

So one sector in this position means that this rally is not the start of a new bull market for the stock market.

At best it is just the first rally in a long stage one basing consolidation phase - such as what the airlines have been in since last July - and at worst will be another bear market rally that will lead to a big decline.

As for today's gap up its good to see the market futures up. But I don't get too excited about it, because it is based on the news that Congress is going to vote on Obama's $825 billion stimulus program today and that the Treasury Department is considering creating a "bad bank" to bail all of the other banks out by buying their assets with taxpayer money.

None of the bank bailout plans or government schemes ended the bear market last year and I don't expect these plans to end this growing recession either. They are gifts to wall street that will bankrupt this country.

They show us that Obama is going to do nothing different than Bush. There is no change in the White House, when the country so desperately needs it. We needed a leader who would break away from the bankers that created this crisis and Obama has shown us that he is not going to do this. He is going to give them whatever they want.

As for the gap up - if the S&P 500 can close above 860 today then I expect the rally to pick up steam. However, if the market doesn't do this then I expect it to trade down tomorrow into Friday's coming GDP 4th quarter report - which is going to be a very bad. Get its footing after that news and then go up some more.

Of course in all of this any surprises would come to the downside. That's where they come from when you aren't in a bull market.