Mike Swanson's picture

Second Quarter Stock Market Forecast - Mike Swanson (04/04/10)

We just put together our second quarter stock market forecast. In the first quarter forecast we released around New Years we warned of a correction at the beginning of the year that would come with January earnings season. That correction came and we told people to hold off on buying while others kept calling for a bottom too early until the very day that the market bottomed in February.

Then we started to recommend stocks to buy. Now on Tuesday April 6th, we will open up the WSW Power Investor Service to 500 new people. Look out for the email we'll send you to join at 12:00 PM EST.

On Saturday we sat down and took a look at the market to come up with a money making game plan for the second quarter. I visited with Andy Emerson and Kevin Amos. Kevin is probably new to you. He trades with Andy and I and lives in the same area. He made so much money from trading that he has left his job with UPS and is moving in to our office to trade with us. The three of us have shared ideas and traded together over the years so we thought it would be helpful for you to share in this weekend's discussion.

Some bullet points:

1 - There is no sign that a bear market is upon us. In fact out of over 230 sectors tracked by TC2000 there are now only 4 sectors that are below their 200-day moving averages. In the Fall of 2007 we were warning that a new bear market was coming, because the vast majority of sectors were already trading below this key 200-day moving average. The opposite is the case now and stock market remains bullish despite fears many have of greek debt, higher taxes, or a sluggish economy.

2 - The intermediate-term outlook for the stock market has improved greatly from the way things stood at the end of the year. Back then some divergences were forming between indicators such as the advance/decline line and the broad market averages - meaning that the broad market averages were acting better than the average stock. This led us to expect a 10%+ correction to occur in the first quarter. Those divergences have disappeared since the February bottom, because the advance/decline line has actually been leading the market higher on this rally, meaning that it has been a healthy broad based rally.

3 - The stock market is overbought in a daily time frame, because its RSI and stochastics momentum indicators are in overbought territory. The stock market is also now entering earnings season which will pick up next week. It has a tendency to falter and pullback a bit during earnings as traders ahead of earnings and sell the news of good earnings. Take these two things together and it is logical to expect a pullback in the market to occur in April.

4 - However, the market is more healthy now than it was at the peak in January. Therefore if a pullback were to occur it would most likely be quicker and not as deep as the last one. Instead of a 10% correction over six weeks we should expect a 5% or so correction in just a few weeks and take it as a buying opportunity. We expect that after the next correction the market will rally up to its 52-week highs again.

5 - The stocks that will be the best to buy will be ones in sectors that are outperforming the market or are just starting stage one bull markets of their own. The best time to buy these sectors are during a short-term pullback. Right now among the sectors that look the most promising are regional bank stocks. We will likely be looking to buy some of these stocks and will be looking for more sectors and stock also. In the WSW Power Investor premium service we'll be adding these sectors and stocks to the watchlist and expect to be making some individual buy recommendations by the end of this month.

WSW Power Investor Notice:

On Tuesday, April 6th, 2010 I’m going to open up the WSW Power Investor Service to 500 new people. I’ll send you an email with your activation link at 12:00 PM EST on that day. Once you sign up for it you'll get much more detailed commentary from me on current markets trends all year long, individual stock recommendations, and much more.

It includes weekly market analysis from me, daily bulletins when market activity calls for your attention, and a stock picks portfolio. Of course you'll also get personal access to me through the website. As a free bonus you'll also get all seven modules of my Stock Market Mastery Course. This is a complete course with hours of videos, multiple PDF guides, and more. The titles of the modules are:

Module 1 - Mind Over Matter - The Psychology of Trading - While most investors try to control their emotions and block them out I'll show you how winning traders seemingly invest effortlessly with real confidence and how you can easily achieve this.

Module 2 - The Building Blocks of Technical Analysis - How to tell for sure if a market is in a bull or bear market with one look at a chart so you won't miss out on huge gains or become a financial body bag in a vicious bear market.

Module 3 - Magic Indicators - How to use the right technical indicators to compliment your analysis of a stock and not get rigidly trapped by them or overwhelmed using the wrong ones.

Module 4- Swing Trading Tactics - How swing trading can actually be used to reduce the overall risk in your portfolio so you will maximize your returns and limit any losses.

Module 5 – Break Through Trading By Timing Your Entry Point To Perfection - How to clearly define your entry point in a trade and know exactly where you should put a stop loss order for risk management.

Module 6 – Get Out at the Top and Maximize Your Profits - Know the warning signs that spot a market top forming months in advance before a bear market breaks out and eats everyone alive.

Module 7 – Secret Weapons of Champion Traders - Discover money management techniques to properly diversify your portfolio in order to generate the greatest return with the lowest amount of risk.

As you can tell from the titles each lesson is much more detailed and specific than the educational presentations you have seen so far. They have a lot more material in them.

Here is the thing though - If you do a Google search on the Internet you will find that people sell similar courses for over $2,00 and sometimes as much as $5,000. I was originally going to sell this course separately to you later this year, but decided to give it to you as a free bonus.

The reason why I am doing this is that I want you to be a happy customer once you become a member of WallStreetWindow Power Investor. My goal is to build a long-term relationship with you built on mutual success and over delivering on my part.

Those guys who sell courses for over $2,000 a pop charge so much, because they have nothing else to really offer you. If they have a subscription product to go along with their course they don't feel confident about it. Therefore, they feel like they have to get as much money out of their customers as quickly as possible.

My whole goal is to provide you with as much value as I can so that you will become a long-term WallStreetWindow Power Investor member.

To do that I rather give you the Stock Market Mastery Course for free with the membership even though it is probably worth more than the price of the membership by itself, because I know that once you go through the course you will feel much more confident about investing in the stock market and that in turn will make you a better investor who can use the information I give you and may even make you into a valued contributor to our insider community. I benefit from your success so I have an interest in seeing you succeed as much as possible.

Now you need to know that I limit the new memberships to only a small number of people and only a few times a year for a number of reasons. First I consider Power Investor a training program for new people that takes a lot of work on my part, because it requires me to answer lots of email questions from new members. In the past so many people were signing up that I decided I really could no longer handle it, because I no longer had the time to constantly answer emails from new people. So I decided to just accept new people only a few times a year so the influx of new people would happen in a narrow window of time instead of all of the time. I also wanted to make my service more valuable to current subscribers and by keeping it limited to a small number of people this does that for them.

There is another big reason that I have to keep this offer limited to only 500 people, but I can't reveal this reason until I actually put the offer page up. Once you read it you will understand why. I'm going to try something that no one has ever tried to do in this industry before, but I cannot reveal it to you until I put the offer page up or it could blow up in my face. I'm just asking you to trust me on this and be patient another day before you can get all of the details. I have to keep it a secret until then for my own safety. It worked well in the past but still makes me nervous.

I'll notify you via email on Tuesday 12PM EST as soon as the email page is live. Be on the lookout for this email, because when I last opened up the WSW Power Investor service months ago it sold out suddenly and I don't plan on doing it again until next summer at a much higher price.

I don't want to put any pressure on you, but you need to know that back then there were about 40,000 people on this email list and now there are over 50,000 people so it may sell out even faster.

Also I have an old list with over 80,000 emails on it that goes all of the way back to 1999. Because the list is so old though most of these emails are no longer active. I estimate there are probably only 10,000 active readers on it. So that is around 6o,000 people all together who get my stuff making a sellout on Tuesday pretty much a sure thing.

But whether you become a member or not let’s make the rest of this year your best yet in the stock market! Let's get some good trades in the second quarter!





Sign Up Below to My Free Weekly Newsletter

Hello. My name is Mike Swanson. I’m the best-selling author of the book Strategic Stock Trading. In a former life I used to run a hedge fund from 2003 to 2006 that generated a return of over 78% during that time frame. In fact it was ranked in the top 35 out of 5,000 hedge funds in 2005.

After I retired from the hedge fund world I setup this website and blog. If you sign up for my free weekly email list below I’ll send you an update on average about once a week on my views of the current stock market trends and share with you actionable investment ideas.

Now I cannot promise you that every stock I find will go up in value. I can’t promise you endless 100% returns as others claim they do and as all the disclaimers say past performance does not necessarily predict future performance and you can lose all of your money in the stock market.

This is reality.

What I can promise you is my dedication to doing the best I can for you.

You see the key to making money over the long-run in the stock market is to manage your risk. Once you sign up to my newsletter I’ll send you a series of educational videos and writings showing you how I use stop-loss orders to cut any potential losses and how I use my two fold formula system that combines fundamental and technical analysis to pick stocks. My goal is to risk one dollar to try to make at least three dollars in my trades by looking for stocks that are priced cheaply on a valuation basis, have high earnings growth, and have excellent chart patterns.

So join my list below and let me help guide you on your journey in the stock market.