Last week the market pretty much ended the week where it started as the S&P 500 closed on Friday down two points for the week. Gold though continued its torrid rise despite more premature calls by various talking heads and Wall Street experts for a major bottom in the dollar.

Once again the opinions of the majority have been proven wrong.

In fact on this weekend once again I cannot find a single person on the Internet who is saying now is the time to buy stocks. Sure - there are people on message boards that are, but I'm talking about writers and commentators. This has been a trend for about a month now. And the more people that are down on the market the harder it is for most people to buy - even to just hold on to what they already have that is working for them.

The fear from last year still remains. The average American lost about half of their retirement account and that's a painful memory for most to overcome. Yes, I do think eventually next year we'll see the market make an important peak, but there is no sign of that happening now. Yes the number of stocks leading the rally is narrowing, but there are enough going up to make some nice money. Just look at CGA last week as a case in point. It rallied over 22% in one day and is well over twice the level I bought it at back in July.

In fact this week tends to historically be one of the best weeks of the year, because the stock market almost always goes up the holiday shortened day before Thanksgiving and continue higher the day after Thanksgiving too.

Going back to 1983 the S&P 500 has tended to rally in the days leading into Thanksgiving and continue higher until eight trading days later. After which it would dip a little in the first part of December and then continue higher until the end of the year.

Even last year during the stock market meltdown the market managed to rally into the Thanksgiving holiday and maintain an upward bias through December.

Now I wouldn't base any decisions solely upon these facts. I always look at the charts as my primary indicator.

Right now the S&P 500 has support in the 1070-1075 area while it is overbought on daily stochastics. Below that level it has support in the 1070 area. I am fairly convinced that we'll see the market go higher on Wednesday and Friday - the days between Thanksgiving.

So if the market is going to go much lower it needs to do it today and tomorrow. It really needs to do it today. It needs to sell this gap up and drop.

Even on a chart you can see this, because if the market is going to fall much more it needs to carry over the downside momentum we saw last Thursday and Friday. If it just holds up then it will be in a position to simply drift sideways. That would cause its daily bollinger bands(they are green in the chart above) to come together and lead to a volatility breakout - one that would most likely be to the upside.

Here is the thing though - if the markets has an upside breakout from here it will most likely spark a huge climatic blow-off top rally - a rally that will last for weeks and send the market up another 10-20% by the middle of January.

I know this might sound crazy to you. So many people are calling for big declines right now and talking about how the valuation of stocks or lack of growth in the economy doesn't justify current stock prices.

However, if the market manages to just hold up here and then break to new highs it will completely devastate the bears who think a major top is happening right now.

They'll be forced to cover.

More importantly though all of the nervous nellies - the mutual fund managers, hedge funds, and individual traders - who have been sitting on the sidelines in fear of market tops will start to rush into to buy. The last thing an institutional manager can do is not be invested in a rising market at the end of the year. They rather LOSE money than miss out on something like that. So they'll be forced to buy despite the lack of growth in the economy..

Upside momentum will grow and lead to what would probably be a climatic rally that would end around the start of January earnings season.

I've drawn a projection of what such a possible rally would look like on the chart above - trying to make it match seasonal patterns too.

Now I'm not predicting this. I'm about 75% invested myself and will probably be buying some new stocks this week, especially if the market dips a little in the first part of this week, but I want you to be aware of this scenario.

And know that if the S&P 500 manages to close above 1110 one day this week or next and then follow through the next day it is likely exactly what is happening. However, if the S&P 500 falls hard today and tomorrow and closes below 1070 then a bigger correction is likely.

Making money in the stock market isn't about making correct predictions, but in identifying the long-term trend of the market - which is UP right now! - and using investment strategies that are appropriate for it.

However, as part of the process of keeping your pulse on the trend you need to draw out different scenarios and see what kind of impact they would have if they were to occur. In the position the market is in and so many people doubting it an upside breakout at this time of year is a strong possibility we have to be prepared for - that most people aren't considering at all.

Most people don't think about the stock market this way. When the TV is bullish they get bullish and when the talking heads get scared they get scared. Most investors simply follow the herd.

This video shows how herds work. If you've been a herd follower maybe it will give you an idea of why - and how to escape that condition.

I will likely do some select buying in stocks that look like they are breaking out this week and next. I spent about all day Saturday looking for stocks and am adding the following to the watchlist: PRGN. ZIOP, REV, RBY, JBSS, HTM, FIT, ANIK, EXLS, IUSA, CWST, ATK, AEC, AFSI, CNGL, CPHI, OMN, LAVA, AEC, AFSI,

My Portfolio:

Contract Description	Position	Currency	Market Price	Market Value	Average Price	Unrealized P&L
VOD	2000	USD	22.54	45080	19.37	6330.18
SUMR	10000	USD	4.4	44000	4.34	606
SSRI	2000	USD	21.51	43020	17.49	8040
NXG	20000	USD	3.25	65000	2.22	20598
NEM	1000	USD	52.26	52260	41.09	11165.15
GOL	3000	USD	12.92	38760	9.74	9555
GG	1000	USD	43.64	43640	38.28	5355.03
CGA	5500	USD	17.14	94270	8.14	49506.55
AUY	3000	USD	13.6	40800	9.22	13155
AU	500	USD	43.96	21980	39.11	2422.52
ABX	500	USD	43.98	21990	36.46	3759.86

My Watchlist

Symbol	Name	Sector	Price
AEC	Associated Estates Rlty	REAL ESTATE - REIT - Residential	9.84
AER	AerCap Holdings	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Rental & Leasing Services	8.36
AFSI	AmTrust Financial Services Inc.	INSURANCE - Insurance Brokers	12.07
ANIK	Anika Therapeutics Inc	DRUGS - Biotechnology	8.03
ASPS	Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A.	REAL ESTATE - Property Management/Development	16.6
ATK	Alliant Techsystems Inc	AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	86.23
BOOM	Dynamic Materials Corp	METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals	19.91
BSTC	Biospecifics Technologies Corp	DRUGS - Biotechnology	30.78
CAGC	China Agritech Inc	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services	19.67
CBOU	Caribou Coffee Company Inc	LEISURE - Specialty Eateries	7.86
CDCS	CDC Software Corporation	COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Application Software	10
CNGL	China Nutrifruit Group Limited	FOOD & BEVERAGE - Processed & Packaged Goods	3.45
CPBY	China Information Security Technology Inc	COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Application Software	6.42
CPHI	China Pharma Holdings Incorporated	DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Major	3.4
CTDC	China Technology Development Group Corp	COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Business Software & Services	4.27
CWST	Casella Waste Systms Inc	MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Waste Management	3.27
DBA	PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF	FINANCIAL SERVICES - Closed End Fund - Equity	26.03
DDRX	Diedrich Coffee	RETAIL - Grocery Stores	25.99
DRJ	Dreams Inc	SPECIALTY RETAIL - Sporting Goods Stores	1.19
EPIC	Epicor Software Corp	COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Application Software	7.13
EXLS	Exlservice Holdings Inc	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services	16.8
FIT	Health Fitness Corporation	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Personal Services	6.69
FSCI	Fisher Comms	MEDIA - Broadcasting - TV	16.59
GPRE	Green Plains Renewable Energy	CHEMICALS - Specialty Chemicals	11.7
HHGP	Hudson Highland Grp Inc W/i	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Staffing & Outsourcing Services	4.25
HTM	US Geothermal Inc	UTILITIES - Diversified Utilities	1.63
IUSA	Infogroup Inc. Common Sto	MEDIA - Marketing Services	8.81
JBSS	John Sanfilippo & Son	FOOD & BEVERAGE - Processed & Packaged Goods	13.93
KGN	Keegan Resources Inc	METALS & MINING - Gold	6.78
KNDI	Kandi Tech Corp	AUTOMOTIVE - Trucks & Other Vehicles	4.37
KOG	Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp	ENERGY - Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration	2.49
KRO	Kronos Worldwide Inc	CHEMICALS - Specialty Chemicals	13.29
LAVA	Magma Design Automation Inc	COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Business Software & Services	2.38
LCAPA	Liberty Media Capital Class A	MEDIA - Entertainment - Diversified	23.11
LIWA	Lihua Intl Inc	METALS & MINING - Copper	8.77
LUNA	Luna Innovations Inc	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Research Services	1.38
MNI	Mcclatchy Company (The)	MEDIA - Publishing - Periodicals/News	2.98
NEP	China Northeast Petroleum	ENERGY - Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration	5.07
NEWT	Newtek Business Services Inc	FINANCIAL SERVICES - Diversified Investments	0.92
NOA	NACG Holdings Inc	ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services	6.41
NTRI	NutriSystem Inc	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Consumer Services	22.79
OMN	Omnova Solutions Inc	CHEMICALS - Specialty Chemicals	7
OWW	Orbitz Worldwide Inc	LEISURE - General Entertainment	5.9
PLD	Prologis	REAL ESTATE - REIT - Diversified/Industrial	13.3
PLG	Platinum Group Metal	METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals	1.68
PLM	PolyMet Mining Corp	METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals	2.53
PRGN	Paragon Shipping Inc	TRANSPORTATION - Shipping	5.15
QXM	Qiao Xing Mobile Com	TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Wireless Communications	4.63
RBY	Rubicon Minerals Corporation	METALS & MINING - Gold	4.39
REV	Revlon Inc	CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Personal Products	17.22
ROS	Rostelecom	TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Telecom Services - Foreign	39.3
SCSS	Select Comfort Corp	CONSUMER DURABLES - Home Furnishings & Fixtures	5.3
SFL	Ship Finance Intl Ltd	TRANSPORTATION - Shipping	12.54
SIF	Sifco Industries Inc	AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	15.49
SKX	Skechers Usa Inc	CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories	22.62
SNIC	Sonic Solutions	COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Business Software & Services	8.36
SORL	SORL Auto Parts Inc	AUTOMOTIVE - Auto Manufacturers - Major	7.15
T	AT&T Inc	TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Telecom Services - Domestic	26.02
TEVA	Teva Pharm Ind	DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Other	52.72
TGB	Taseko Mines Ltd	METALS & MINING - Copper	3.2
TMI	China Mediaexpress Holdings	MEDIA - Marketing Services	12.94
TRW	Trw Automotive Hldgs Corp	AUTOMOTIVE - Auto Parts	22.85
USEG	U.S. Energy Corp Wyo	METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals	6.04
VVTV	Valuevision Media Inc Cl A	RETAIL - Catalog & Mail Order Houses	3.37
WNS	WNS (Holdings) Ltd	DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services	16
ZIOP	Ziopharm Oncology Inc	DRUGS - Biotechnology	3.6