Mike Swanson's picture

This Week For Stocks - Mike Swanson (10/05/09)

This week we are going to see the start of earnings season as Alcoa reports earnings on Wednesday, but earnings won't really heat up until next week when large numbers of companies start to report. The financial press loves earnings season, because it gives them something to talk about, but the last two earnings period in July and April really had no effect on the larger trend of the stock market and I really do not think this one will either.

In fact usually I don't pay much attention to earnings at all. I almost never buy or a sell a stock based on an earnings report. To me what is more important are the larger trends and the overall technical picture of the market.



We've been in a correction in a larger bull market for three weeks now. Such corrections usually end with the appearance of panic in the market and we got that last Thursday when the ratio of sell to buy volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq exceeded 9:1. The VIX also spiked up 10% while the put/call ratio jumped to one - showing that options players were in a mad scramble to buy puts.

On Friday the market averages went through their 50-day moving averages and bounced. I've been saying for awhile now that we'd probably see this level hit and that would be the time to think about buying if you aren't already in the market.

I think we are now exiting a correction phase and entering a consolidation period that will likely last for the next several weeks and see the market basically trade in a sideways range with 1075 on the S&P 500 marking resistance and 1020 marking support. I do think we'll get a bounce here, but it is possible that the market could break last week's low later this month and fall down to the 1010 area or so, but the odds of that happening are probably 1 out of 3 and I wouldn't worry about it, because we'd probably just see the market quickly bounce back up if that were to happen. Bottom line is that we have been in a market pause in a bigger bull trend for the past few weeks and that pause is likely to continue for the next several weeks, but as far as lower prices go we've probably seen the worst of it.

I used the drop Friday to buy a few stocks and going forward I plan on looking for stocks that appear to be poised to breakout for more potential buys. In this type of market that's what you want to do - use dips to buy and then keep an eye out for exceptional stocks.

There has been a lot of negative talk in the market. Late in August some well known commentators were talking about a Fall market crash. Robert Prechter was screaming for one and even Art Cashin on CNBC was saying that Fall would bring hell to investors. But Fall is here and all we've seen is an orderly correction.

In bull markets you don't want to get caught up in fear when the market has a pullback every once in awhile, but keep your eye on the ball and big picture. That means using dips as entry points and to always be looking for the next big sector or big stock.

I am adding two new stocks to the top ten list - PNCL and GOL. You can read the post about them by clicking here.

My complete watchlist is as follows:




Symbol Name Sector Price Volume
AAI Airtran Hldg TRANSPORTATION - Regional Airlines 6.05 31134
ACAT Arctic Cat Inc AUTOMOTIVE - Recreational Vehicles 6.18 298
AER AerCap Holdings DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Rental & Leasing Services 8.29 7986
ALGN Align Tech Inc HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Appliances & Equipment 15.07 15016
ASPS Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. REAL ESTATE - Property Management/Development 14.71 1439
ATPG Atp  Oil & Gas ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas 16.45 34469
AUDC Audiocodes Ltd TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Communication Equipment 2.22 2355
AXS Axis Capital Holdings INSURANCE - Property & Casualty Insurance 29.99 10536
BOOM Dynamic Materials Corp METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals 18.1 1395
BSTC Biospecifics Technologies Corp DRUGS - Biotechnology 32.28 120
BVN Compania De Minas Buena METALS & MINING - Gold 33.55 16334
BZ Boise Incorporated CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Paper & Paper Products 5.15 9658
CAGC China Agritech Inc DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services 13.42 995
CALI China Auto Logistics Inc WHOLESALE - Auto Parts Wholesale 5.85 195
CAST ChinaCast Education Corporation DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Education & Training Services 7.07 1135
CBEH China Bio Energy Holding Co` L ENERGY - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 7.33 287
CBI Chicago Bridge & Iron Nv MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - General Contractors 17.71 17138
CBOU Caribou Coffee Company Inc LEISURE - Specialty Eateries 6.59 1334
CHIP Verichip Corporation TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Communication Equipment 2.44 4762
CHNG China Natural Gas Inc UTILITIES - Gas Utilities 11.09 1734
CLP Colonial Properties Tr REAL ESTATE - REIT - Residential 10.31 28535
CMFO China Marine Food Group Limited 4.77 1219
CMN Cantel Medical Corp. HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Instruments & Supplies 15.29 1006
CRTP China Ritar Power Corp MANUFACTURING - Industrial Electrical Equipment 6.08 869
CSR China Securties & Surveillance DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Security & Protection Services 6.28 18712
CSV Carriage Services Inc DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Personal Services 3.85 302
CTFO China TransInfo Technology Corporation COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Application Software 8.96 1317
CVM Cel-Sci Corp DRUGS - Biotechnology 1.66 99951
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF FINANCIAL SERVICES - Closed End Fund - Equity 24.53 21664
DDRX Diedrich Coffee RETAIL - Grocery Stores 21.11 1171
DXYN Dixie Group Inc The MANUFACTURING - Textile Manufacturing 2.96 63
EQR Equity Residential REAL ESTATE - REIT - Residential 28.62 47084
ERJ Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica ADS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Products & Services 22.57 20198
ETM Entercom Communications MEDIA - Broadcasting - Radio 5.45 1948
EVC Entravision Cmmnctns MEDIA - Broadcasting - TV 1.84 11407
FELE Franklin Electric Co Inc MANUFACTURING - Industrial Electrical Equipment 27.27 963
FLWS 1-800-Flowers.Com Inc A RETAIL - Catalog & Mail Order Houses 3.28 734
FRZ Reddy Ice Holdings Inc FOOD & BEVERAGE - Processed & Packaged Goods 4.86 1446
FSCI Fisher Comms MEDIA - Broadcasting - TV 18.03 128
GGC Georgia Gulf Corp CHEMICALS - Synthetics 28.89 827
GMXR Gmx Resources Inc ENERGY - Independent Oil & Gas 14.17 8142
GRA W.R. Grace & Co CHEMICALS - Specialty Chemicals 20.76 7866
GTSI Gtsi Corporation WHOLESALE - Computers Wholesale 7.88 84
GY Gencorp Inc CONGLOMERATES - Conglomerates 5.12 3853
HHGP Hudson Highland Grp Inc W/i DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Staffing & Outsourcing Services 3.13 597
HQS HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries Inc. DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services 8.14 3552
IGC India Globalization Capital Inc MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Heavy Construction 1.67 2092
LIWA Lihua Intl Inc METALS & MINING - Copper 9.38 2206
LUNA Luna Innovations Inc DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Research Services 2.15 17370
MNI Mcclatchy Company (The) MEDIA - Publishing - Periodicals/News 2.32 12127
NCT Newcastle Investment REAL ESTATE - REIT - Diversified/Industrial 2.27 13272
NEP China Northeast Petroleum ENERGY - Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 4.42 3630
NHWK NightHawk Radiology Holdings Inc HEALTH SERVICES - Specialized Health Services 6.95 3055
NOA NACG Holdings Inc ENERGY - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 5.76 673
NUHC Nu Horizons Electronics WHOLESALE - Electronics Wholesale 3.9 281
NYT New York Times Co The MEDIA - Publishing - Periodicals/News 7.32 13087
PCX Patriot Coal Corp METALS & MINING - Industrial Metals & Minerals 10.9 55043
PERY Perry Ellis Int'l CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Textile - Apparel Clothing 14.71 1046
PLD Prologis REAL ESTATE - REIT - Diversified/Industrial 10.97 151686
PRX Par Pharmaceutical Co Inc DRUGS - Drugs - Generic 21.31 2188
RCON Recon Technology` Ltd COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Business Software & Services 7.19 1325
RODM Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group` Inc. FINANCIAL SERVICES - Investment Brokerage - National 5.8 5766
SCIL Scientific Learning Corp COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Application Software 3.51 60
SCSS Select Comfort Corp CONSUMER DURABLES - Home Furnishings & Fixtures 4.73 5351
SFE Safeguard Scientific Inc FINANCIAL SERVICES - Diversified Investments 10.49 823
SFL Ship Finance Intl Ltd TRANSPORTATION - Shipping 11.75 6382
SIF Sifco Industries Inc AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Products & Services 14.69 57
SORL SORL Auto Parts Inc AUTOMOTIVE - Auto Manufacturers - Major 4.65 393
T AT&T Inc TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Telecom Services - Domestic 26.52 247750
UTA Universal Travel Group DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Consumer Services 12.25 3195
UTSI UTStarcom Inc TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Wireless Communications 1.95 5193
XJT Expressjet Holdings Inc TRANSPORTATION - Regional Airlines 3.1 3728
XSEL Xinhua Finance Media Ads MEDIA - Advertising Services 1.63 2928
YONG Yongye International Inc CHEMICALS - Agricultural Chemicals 9.02 13290
ZOLL Zoll Medical Corporation HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Appliances & Equipment 22 1936
ZOOMD Zoom Technologies Inc (de) TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Communication Equipment 7.62 189

My Real Portfolio:



Contract Description Position Currency Market Price Market Value Average Price Unrealized P&L
VOD 2000 USD 22.09 44180 19.37 5430.18
TRIT 2000 USD 14.12 28240 13.5 1250
SUMR 10000 USD 4.8 48000 4.34 4606
SSRI 2000 USD 19.55 39100 17.49 4120
PNCL 5000 USD 6.83 34150 6.41 2111.55
NXG 20000 USD 2.59 51800 2.22 7398
NEM 1000 USD 42.12 42120 41.09 1025.15
KGC 3000 USD 20.43 61290 19.76 1995
GOL 3000 USD 10.25 30750 9.74 1545
GG 1000 USD 38.12 38120 38.28 -164.97
GCI 5000 USD 11.84 59200 8.26 17925
CNSL 4000 USD 15.88 63520 11.75 16532
CGA 5500 USD 10.72 58960 8.14 14196.55
AYR 5000 USD 9.05 45250 9.53 -2424
AUY 3000 USD 10.05 30150 9.22 2505
AU 500 USD 38.8 19400 39.11 -157.48
ABX 500 USD 36.1 18050 36.46 -180.14


Sign Up Below to My Free Weekly Newsletter

Hello. My name is Mike Swanson. I’m the best-selling author of the book Strategic Stock Trading. In a former life I used to run a hedge fund from 2003 to 2006 that generated a return of over 78% during that time frame. In fact it was ranked in the top 35 out of 5,000 hedge funds in 2005.

After I retired from the hedge fund world I setup this website and blog. If you sign up for my free weekly email list below I’ll send you an update on average about once a week on my views of the current stock market trends and share with you actionable investment ideas.

Now I cannot promise you that every stock I find will go up in value. I can’t promise you endless 100% returns as others claim they do and as all the disclaimers say past performance does not necessarily predict future performance and you can lose all of your money in the stock market.

This is reality.

What I can promise you is my dedication to doing the best I can for you.

You see the key to making money over the long-run in the stock market is to manage your risk. Once you sign up to my newsletter I’ll send you a series of educational videos and writings showing you how I use stop-loss orders to cut any potential losses and how I use my two fold formula system that combines fundamental and technical analysis to pick stocks. My goal is to risk one dollar to try to make at least three dollars in my trades by looking for stocks that are priced cheaply on a valuation basis, have high earnings growth, and have excellent chart patterns.

So join my list below and let me help guide you on your journey in the stock market.