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Only Real 'Rigged Election' Ensures a Republican House Majority

RealClearPolitics - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 08:24
David Daley, Salon
A huge Clinton wave could tilt red states blue — but it still won't be enough for Democrats to take the House

Real Feminists Don't Airbrush Hillary Clinton's Flaws

RealClearPolitics - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 08:24
Shikha Dalmia, The Week
Here's why her inevitable win will be no victory for feminism

Hillary Clinton: Architect of American Failure

RealClearPolitics - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 08:24
Keith Kellogg, Washington Examiner
My experience in decision-making has shown that patterns are tough to break. In the military we study an opponent looking for gaps, flaws, or weaknesses that can be exploited. Successful leaders at all levels in all disciplines conduct this kind of analysis. It is quite clear, using that kind of analysis, that Hillary Clinton can best be described as an architect of failure when it comes to national security and international relations. The potential consequences of her flawed decision-making would be destructive to the nation if she were commander in chief. The second presidential debate...

Myanmar's Suu Kyi in pitch to foreign investors after Obama lifts sanctions

Reuters Us Markets - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 08:12
NAYPYITAW, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Saturday made a pitch to foreign investors, promising a clearer legal framework and opportunities in untapped economic sectors, two...

Fighting rages in Yemen despite truce

MiddleEasteye - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 08:03
Language Undefined

Yemen's Vice President Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar accused the rebels of 449 violations within 24 hours of the ceasefire taking effect

Turkish PM blasts Iraq and EU as tensions rise amid warming Russia ties

MiddleEasteye - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 07:36
Language Undefined

Turkish PM criticises "provocative" Iraqi leadership, and warns EU that Ankara has alternatives amid warming ties with Russia

British MEP detained and equipment confiscated while entering Turkey

MiddleEasteye - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 07:15
Language Undefined

Labour MEP Julie Ward says she has notified the European Parliament that Turkish police accessed her private emails

Trump to lay out what he would do in first 100 days if elected president

Top Reuters News - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 07:02
(Reuters) - Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will lay out on Saturday what he would do in the first 100 days of his administration should he win the Nov. 8 election.

Trump to lay out what he would do in first 100 days if elected president

Reuters US Politics - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 07:02
(Reuters) - Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will lay out on Saturday what he would do in the first 100 days of his administration should he win the Nov. 8 election.

Aleppo city quiet on third day of ceasefire, some clashes

Top Reuters News - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 06:38
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Calm prevailed across the divided Syrian city of Aleppo on Saturday, the third day of a unilateral ceasefire announced by Russia, but medical evacuations and aid deliveries have yet to take place, a war monitor said.

Iraq storms main Christian town near Mosul as Carter arrives in Baghdad

Top Reuters News - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 06:02
QAYYARA, Iraq (Reuters) - The Iraqi army on Saturday stormed a Christian town that had been under control of Islamic State since 2014 as part of U.S.-backed operations to clear the entrances to Mosul, the militants' last major city stronghold in Iraq.

Former US general calls for 'Marshall Plan' for the Middle East

MiddleEasteye - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 05:49
Language Undefined

Former anti-IS envoy John Allen warned that there was no 'military solution' to the rise of groups like Islamic State in the Middle East

Belgian shopping mall evacuated after man fires rifle in store

Top Reuters News - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 05:46
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - A Belgian shopping center was evacuated on Saturday after a man opened fire with a Kalashnikov rifle in a store in Chatelineau, 50 km (35 miles) south of Brussels, Belgian media reported.

The peaceniks in Israel's highest echelons

MiddleEasteye - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 05:00

Many of Israel's military and intelligence chiefs express dovish sentiments once they have left - and the reason may be more than a change of heart

Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull?

TheDailyGold - Sat, 10/22/2016 - 02:25

Gold and gold stocks have stabilized after forming a short-term low and even held up well while the US$ index pushed to an 8-month high. Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, Gold and gold stocks would be vulnerable to further losses. However, many astute analysts and traders believe that Gold and the US$ index can rise together and we note that the trend in the US$ index while important, is not the primary driver of Gold. Ultimately, as long as Gold’s fundamental driver, declining or negative real rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track.

First, take a look at what I like to call my master chart for Gold’s fundamentals. We plot Gold, the real fed funds rate and the real 5-year yield. We highlight the major bear markets in Gold which occurred when real rates were rising or were strongly positive. Since the middle of 2015 real rates have declined and that explains the sustained recovery in Gold this year.  

Gold & Real Interest Rates


Although the Federal Reserve could raise rates, inflation is ticking higher and recent market action argues that inflation and inflation expectations will rise into 2017. Inflation metrics such as the sticky CPI and core CPI are showing inflation well above 2% without higher energy prices which could be on the way in the months ahead. Oil closed the week at a 15-month high and in recent weeks surged above important moving averages such as the 200 and 400-day.

In other words, the potential coming rise in inflation figures to dwarf a measly quarter point rate hike. Recall the mid 2000s and the 1970s. Inflation rose faster than interest rates and so Gold performed well. The Fed raises rates when inflation rises but the Fed is almost certain to remain behind the curve and let inflation run. That is bullish for Gold in US$ terms, even if the US$ index is performing well.    

Another thing to keep an eye on is Gold’s performance against foreign currencies. Below we plot Gold priced in a number of different currencies and the corresponding 400-day moving average. Other than in Yen terms, Gold is in an uptrend against every major currency and remains above rising 400-day moving averages.  

Gold in various currencies


Ultimately, the single most important driver of Gold is negative or declining real interest rates and with inflation poised to rise, real rates are likely to decline further in 2017. If the US$ index is rising then that certainly puts some cap on Gold’s performance in US$ terms. However, the presence of negative real rates combined with continued outperformance in foreign currency terms would sustain the bull market. Moreover, precious metals already experienced a vicious multi-year bear market. You don’t get that kind of buying opportunity twice but the recent correction in the sector has created a lower risk buying opportunity. For professional guidance in riding the uptrend in Gold, consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform into 2017.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA



The post Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull? appeared first on The Daily Gold.

Why the Incarceration Boom Happened

LibertarianInstitute - Fri, 10/21/2016 - 23:19

A surplus number of prosecutors needed some make-work, of course.